A widely followed cryptocurrency analyst is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) could retreat further ahead of next month's halving, when miners' rewards will be cut in half.
Pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader Rekt Capital says his 433,000 followers on social media platform
“Two days have passed since Bitcoin officially entered the “danger zone” (orange), where historic pre-halving pullbacks began. Historically, Bitcoin has made pre-halving retracements 14-28 days before the halving. BTC is currently about 26 days away from halving, and since last week it has dropped almost -18% overall.
It is not certain whether the bottom of the retracement has already occurred or not. But what is clear is this: Bitcoin recently entered its “danger zone” time window. Technically, there is still time for additional disadvantages.”
Trader says Bitcoin's price structure shows similarities to the 2016 cycle, which may indicate a deeper decline ahead of the halving event.
“In 2016, Bitcoin performed a pre-halving retracement about 28 days before the halving. In 2024, Bitcoin made a pre-halving retracement, approximately 32 days before the halving. Interestingly, when Bitcoin began its pre-halving retracement in 2016, the price initially generated a long decline before resuming its trend.
Recently, Bitcoin also generated a long bearish effect on its pre-halving retracement. Bitcoin will need to continue to sustain its current highs to avoid a fate similar to 2016, when the initial reaction was strong but short-lived.
Trader too prediction when Bitcoin could peak in the current bull market cycle.
“When could Bitcoin peak in this bull market? Bitcoin tends to stay at the top of a bull market for 266-315 days after breaking through its old all-time high. Last week, Bitcoin broke through its old all-time highs. The next bull market peak may therefore occur in 266-315 days. “It’s very late November 2024 or very late January 2025.”
However, the trader says that historically, it takes longer to reach a peak in each cycle, which could push the peak of the current bull market to December 2024 or mid-February 2025.
“Historically, the number of days Bitcoin has spent above old all-time highs has increased by approximately 14 days to 35 days…
If we add 14-35 days to the initial bull market peak range of 266-315 days, we get a total of 280-350 days. This, in turn, could push the peak of the Bitcoin bull market to mid-December 2024 or mid-February 2025.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,410, down over 3% in the last 24 hours.
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